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夏旺季煤价反弹窗口开启 煤炭板块业绩共振机会显现

2026-07-14 19:28:03来源：中财网  


(资料图)

数据显示，截至7月10日秦港动力煤价格为792元/吨，周环比下跌17元，本周煤炭指数微涨0.07%，跑赢沪深300指数1.34个百分点。港口库存加速去化，下游日耗逐步回升，煤价跌幅已明显放缓。

一份研报观点认为，7-9月夏旺季动力煤有望迎来企稳反弹窗口。研报指出，供给端受安监高压影响维持刚性，印尼配额增加主要用于填补当地电厂缺口，对国内进口冲击有限。需求端随着梅雨结束、水电出力减弱、气温回升及电厂补库需求释放，供需格局有望改善。

研报认为，2005年以来夏旺季复盘显示，62%的年份煤价实现上涨，其中77%的年份煤炭板块取得绝对收益并跑赢沪深300。即使在价涨股跌的少数年份，煤炭也多因基本面支撑实现超额收益。当前供需形势下，预计本轮煤价反弹幅度或优于历史，且二季度行业利润同环比有望全面转正，三季度业绩与煤价将形成共振。

研报指出，目前主要公司估值已回调至对应800元以下煤价水平，投资性价比凸显。建议关注弹性与量增兼备的兖矿能源、昊华能源、新集能源，以及补涨标的潞安环能、晋控煤业和龙头陕西煤业、中国神华。整体看，悲观情绪集中释放后，煤炭板块底部反转机会值得重视。

关键词： 商业频道 快讯

责任编辑：hnmd003

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